Data and materials availability: 

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed as part of the submitted study are available here . 

Data access is currently restricted to those involved in the article’s external and editorial review and to listed authors. On article acceptance, the dataverse is to become public, open access.

The CMIP6 model outputs can be openly accessed via different ESGF data nodes (e.g., https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) 

 Code Availability: Codes used for data analysis and to produce graphics in this study are available via this dataverse   that includes a workflow table that lists which codes produce each figure and the upstream analysis codes. The code for each figure includes GEUS dataverse links.